山东省城乡居民脑卒中死亡预测分析  

Analysis on Mortality of Stroke in Shandong Province

作　　者：张建国[1,2] 郭晓雷[1,2] 于国防 龚学水[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]山东省卫生防疫站 [2]济南市历下区卫生防疫站

出　　处：《疾病监测》1998年第12期450-453,共4页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：本文对山东省居民１９７０～１９９７年脑卒中死亡率进行了动态分析，并根据时间序列变化趋势，建立灰色系统理论模型，对山东省城乡１９９８～２００７年脑卒中死亡趋势作出预测。分析结果表明，山东省脑卒中粗死亡率近２７年间增长了９４３２％，标化死亡率增长了７７２８％。脑梗塞占脑卒中死亡的比例逐年上升，而脑出血则反之。如不加以预防和控制，在未来的１０年间，脑卒中标化死亡率城、乡将分别上升至６１５０／１０万，７３６３／１０万，比１９９７年分别增加１７０％，１４５２％。Stroke mortality in cities and rural areas of Shandong Province from 1970 to 1997 were analyzed dynamically. a theoretical model of greysystem was established based on the time-series changes in stroke mortality to predict its trend during the years of 1998～2007 in Shandong. The results showed that the crude and ajusted mortality rate in stroke increased by 94.32% and 77.28% respectively. Analyzing the mortality type, ratio of infarction stroke was increased annually but hemorrhagic stroke was on the contrary. By using the grey-system model, the predicted adjusted mortality rate of stroke will be increased to 61.50/100000 in cities and to 73.63/100000 in rural areas respectively (1.70% and 14.52% more than 1997) in 2007.

关 键 词：死亡率 预测 脑中风 山东 

分 类 号：R743.302[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学]