上市公司财务困境的串联和并联组合预测  

Serial Combination and Parallel Combination for Listed Companies Financial Distress Prediction

作　　者：陈光华[1] 王斌会[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学

出　　处：《产经评论》2010年第2期150-155,共6页Industrial Economic Review

基　　金：广东省自然基金资助项目(编号:8151063201000029);项目负责人为王斌会

摘　　要：利用单一判别分析方法对上市公司财务困境进行预测具有片面性和不稳定性。本文尝试通过多种判别分析方法的串联和并联组合来提高预测效果。以我国上市公司为对象的实证研究表明:在预测公司财务困境方面,串联组合的平均预测准确率最高,预测准确率最稳定。但是并联组合预测效果不够理想,有待改进以提高预测效果。Using a single method of discriminate analysis to predict listed companies financial distress is one-sided and unstable.This paper attempts to improve prediction performance by the serial combination and parallel combination of multiple methods of discriminate analysis.Empirical research with data from Chinese listed companies indicates that the average prediction accuracy of financial distress prediction based on serial combination is the highest,and its prediction accuracy is the most stable.But the parallel combination does not perform well enough,and something should be done to improve prediction performance.

关 键 词：财务困境 判别分析 串联组合 并联组合 

分 类 号：F272.1[经济管理—企业管理]