基于分位数回归的西南太平洋阿根廷滑柔鱼栖息地模型研究  

THE HABITAT SUITABILITY INDEX OF ILLEX ARGENTINUS BY USING QUANTILE REGRESSION METHOD IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC

作　　者：冯波[1,2] 田思泉[1,3,4] 陈新军[1,3,4] 

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学海洋科学学院,上海201306 [2]广东海洋大学水产学院,广东湛江524025 [3]大洋生物资源开发和利用上海市高校重点实验室,上海201306 [4]大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室,上海201306

出　　处：《海洋湖沼通报》2010年第1期15-22,共8页Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology

基　　金：国家科技高技术研究发展计划(2007AA092202);国家科技支撑计划(2006BAD09A05);上海市重点学科建设项目(S30702)资助

摘　　要：阿根廷滑柔鱼是西南大西洋重要头足类资源,研究其变动、渔场分布与海洋环境的关系是其可持续利用的基础。本文利用分位数回归方法对表温(5m)、表层盐度(5m)、57m盐度及其盐度差、海面高度、叶绿素与阿根廷滑柔鱼钓获率进行回归分析,在中位数和高位数2种情况下分别建立阿根廷滑柔鱼的栖息地指数(HSI)模型,从而揭示西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼栖息地的分布模式。研究表明,本文建立的各分位数回归方程均能较好地解释自变量与应变量的关系(P<0.05)。1~5月在60°W以西、42°S^53°S阿根廷沿海的大部分海域,其HIS值基本上在0.7以上;而58°W以东海域的HIS在0.4以下。阿根廷滑柔鱼适宜栖息地分布(HIS大于0.6)有明显的季节变化。Illex argentinus is an important cephalopod resource in the southwest Atlantic,the relationship between its resources change,distribution of fishing ground and marine environment is the basis for its sustainable exploitation.In this paper,the regression between sea surface temperature（5m）,sea surface salinity（5m）,57m salinity and their salinity difference,sea surface height,chlorophyll and jigging rates are analyzed by using the method of quantile regression,the habitat suitability index（HSI） models are established under the two kinds of median and high quantile,which revealed the distribution pattern of Illex argentinus＇ habitat in the southwest Atlantic.The study indicated that the median regression equations based on HSI can be used to explain the relationships between variables and results（P0.05）.During January to May,the HIS more than 0.7 is basically distributed in the west water of 60°W and 42°-53°S,while its HIS less than 0.4 is located in the east waters of 58°W.The suitable habitat with more than 0.6 HIS of Illex argentinus has an obvious seasonal variation on the spatial distribution.

关 键 词：阿根廷滑柔鱼 分位数回归 HSI模型 西南大西洋 

分 类 号：S914[农业科学—水产科学] S931.4