个体客户全生命周期价值的模型和实证研究  

Individual Customer's CLV Model Construction and Its Empirical Study

作　　者：李菁菁[1,2] 邵培基[1] 严博[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学经济与管理学院 [2]广西民族大学商学院

出　　处：《管理学报》2010年第4期542-546,594,共6页Chinese Journal of Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70801021)

摘　　要：从企业的角度出发把隐马尔可夫与动态规划技术有效地结合起来,对任意单个客户的终生价值的量化、决策以及优化进行了探讨和分析,提出了个体客户全生命周期价值动态模型,并对所提模型进行了验证。该模型能以通过观察到的客户购买决策序列作为动态最优化问题的解来进行参数评估,而且还能以用所产生的客户状态序列对客户进行动态的评价和分类,判断客户与企业所处关系阶段,从而为企业进行一对一的动态客户关系管理提供了一种定量的方法,并为公司实施最优的营销策略打下基础。From the perspective of enterprises,the paper effectively unifies Hidden Markov model and the dynamic programming technology to analyze quantification,decision-making as well as optimization of single person＇s CLV.It proposes the dynamic model of individual customer＇s CLV and tests the model.The model could be used for parametric estimation using the observed customer purchase decision sequence as the solution of the dynamic optimization problem.The model could also be used for dynamic estimation and classification of customers according to the sequence,and judgment of the relation phase of firm and customers.Thus it provides a quantitative method of dynamic customer relations management for enterprises and lays the foundation of firm for the implementation of the optimal marketing strategy.

关 键 词：客户价值 购买概率 隐马尔可夫模型 动态客户关系管理 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学]