基于小波分析和最小二乘支持向量机的中国大陆地震震级预测研究  

Magnitude Forecasting of Earthquake in China's Mainland based on Least Squares Support Vector Machine and Wavelet Analysis

作　　者：吴芳[1,2] 王卫东[2] 张永志[2] 赵云峰[2] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省地震局,陕西西安710068 [2]长安大学,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《地震》2010年第2期54-60,共7页Earthquake

摘　　要：利用小波分析方法分析百年来中国大陆地震资料,得到了地震活动在不同时间尺度上的特征,同时利用各种尺度的小波系数得出地震活动主要周期,并把此周期值作为参数应用于最小二乘支持向量机预测中。结果表明,此方法报准率较高,平均误差与均方差较小。Based on the wavelet analysis of earthquake data in China's Mainland for the recent century,we determined the characteristics of earthquake activity in different time scales.Meanwhile,the main periods in earthquake activity are obtained from different wavelet coefficients,and as a parameter,the periods are used for earthquake forecasting by means of least square support vector machine（LS-SVM）.The results show that this method has a high success rate with smaller average error.

关 键 词：地震预报 最小二乘支持向量机 小波分析 非线性时间序列 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]