金融危机下的农民工失业保险模型探讨  

Unemployment Insurance Model for Migrant Workers under Financial Crisis

作　　者：边宽江[1] 张振力[1] 敬红敬[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学理学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]中南大学数学科学与计算技术学院,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第11期5946-5947,5951,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：基于利率为常数的假设,建立了保费收入、保费支出均为复合Poisson过程的农民工失业保险风险模型,其中保单的保费和失业保险的理赔额均为随机序列,给出了模型推导和相关破产概率的性质证明过程,得出了不考虑利率的情况下保险公司破产概率精确值的估计式。以中国某市为例,对6个行业的部分农民工进行了失业保险购买意愿调查。根据调查所得数据,利用农民工失业保险风险模型估算了保险公司的破产概率。结果表明,初始资本越多,保险公司破产概率越低,生存能力越强,进而证明了金融危机背景下推行农民工失业保险是国家解决农民工失业问题的有效途径。Assuming that the interest rate is constant,both premium income and expense under constant interest are the unemployment insurance risk model of migrant workers during compound Poisson process. Among them,the premium of an insurance policy and the claim amount of unemployment insurance belong to random sequence. Certification processes of model deduction and ruin probability are put forward. Estimated formula for exact value of ruin probability of insurance company is obtained without considering the interest rate. Taking a certain city in China as an example,willingness investigation on unemployment insurance purchase is carried out among some migrant workers in six industries. According to the investigation data,unemployment insurance risk model of migrant workers is used to estimate the ruin probability of insurance company. Result shows that the more initial capital leads to lower ruin probability of insurance company and stronger survival capability. It is proved that under the background of financial crisis,implementation of unemployment insurance of migrant workers is an effective way to solve the unemployment problem of migrant workers.

关 键 词：失业保险 农民收入 破产概率 

分 类 号：F840[经济管理—保险]