渤海湾西岸风暴潮:叠加地质因素的新探讨  

Storm surges in the west coast of Bohai Bay, China

作　　者：王宏[1] 商志文[1,2] 王福[1] 李建芬[1,3] 裴艳东[1,4] 田立柱[1,3] 范昌福[1,5] 盛晶瑾[1,6] 陈永胜[1,6] 刘会敏[1,6] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质调查局天津地质调查中心,天津300170 [2]中国地质科学院研究生院,北京100037 [3]中国地质大学海洋学院,北京100083 [4]天津科技大学海洋科学与工程学院,天津300457 [5]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所,北京100037 [6]吉林大学地球科学学院,吉林长春130061

出　　处：《地质通报》2010年第5期641-649,共9页Geological Bulletin of China

基　　金：中国地质调查局国土资源大调查项目(编号:1212010540501;1212010814004;1212010911069);国家908专项;天津市海洋局和天津港(集团)有限公司项目资助

摘　　要：通过对渤海湾西岸1895年以来11次风暴潮高水位的厘定,证实并确定了50年、100年、200年直至10000年一遇的风暴潮高水位值。定量评估了风增水与波浪对风暴潮高水位的贡献。进一步从地学角度讨论了21世纪10年间隔的海面上升量、地面下沉与围海造陆共同作用、海面上升引发的净增水效应及河口增水效应。根据上述各类参数,预测了至2050年的10年间隔、50-10000年不同重现期的极端水位,并讨论了地面下沉对风暴潮测量准确性的影响。认为当前的防潮堤（海垱）高度可抵御50-100年一遇的风暴潮的侵袭,但据所讨论的综合因素的影响,建议2020年防潮堤的高度应达到＋4.8m,2030年达到＋5.1m（85高程）。Based on collation of the flooding levels of the 11 storm surges since 1895 in the west coast of Bohai Bay, this paper veri-fied and redefined the flooding levels with a probability of exceedance of 1 in 50, 100, 200... to 10000 years. Contributions of both wind set-up and wave to high water levels are quantitatively estimated as 50cm, respectively. Moreover, the various factors, including sealevel rise （starting from 2009 for every 10-yr-interval in 2009-2100： 3-31cm）, land subsidence coincident with reclamation, net increase of flooding level stimulated by the sealevel rise （2020-2050： 7.5-30cm） and the mouth-channel effect （10cm） were discussed. Based on these parameters, the extreme flooding levels under probability of exceedance of 1 in 50 to 10000 years, respectively, were predicted until 2050 for every 10-yr-interval, and the leveling-correction affected by the subsidence was also discussed. We indicate the height of the existing seadike is capable to defense the storm surges of 1 in 50 to 100 years. However, based on the comprehensive factors discussed in this paper, it is suggested that the seadike should be reached to ＋4.8m in 2020 and ＋5.1m in 2030, respectively （both the State 85 Datum）.

关 键 词：渤海湾西岸 风暴潮高水位 趋势预测 

分 类 号：P736[天文地球—海洋地质]