虚拟水理论及其在粮食安全中的应用  

Virtual water theory and its application in food security

作　　者：鲁仕宝[1] 黄强[1] 马凯[1] 张永永[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室,西安710048

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2010年第5期59-64,共6页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40501011;50679070);西安理工大学优秀博士基金(106-210910)

摘　　要：中国的水资源短缺直接影响到粮食生产,进而影响粮食安全。运用虚拟水理论,通过虚拟水战略,使缺水的国家和地区以贸易的方式获得本地区所需要的水资源,促进商品生产和服务,进而稳定本地区经济可持续发展。该文着重介绍了农作物和畜牧产品的虚拟水计算方法,并结合中部四省区在农业生产中的实例,指出虚拟水战略作为解决水资源短缺的一种备选方案,通过虚拟水贸易使虚拟水在全球范围进行配置。作为一种调节手段,可增加水资源紧缺地区的水资源供应,从而维护区域或国家的水资源安全和粮食安全。对实现水资源的优化配置和粮食安全生产有着重要的理论和现实意义。Virtual water means all water resource consumed in the process of commodity production and service.From virtual water strategy,the country or region,who is in lack of water,could obtain the necessary water resource by means of trade in order to stabilize the economic sustainable development for this region.This thesis gave emphasis to introduce the calculation method of virtual water for farm crops and stock raising.Through actual examples appearing in farm production of four provinces in central part of China,this thesis pointed out that virtual water strategy could be regarded as a back-up proposal to solve water resource shortage,and virtual water could be collocated globally by virtual water trade.As a kind of regulating method,the virtual water strategy could increase the water supply for the region in lack of water so as to maintain the regional or national security in the view of water resource and food security.Hereby,virtual water possesses the important theoretic and practical significance for optimum arrangement of water resource and food security production.

关 键 词：神经网络 敏感性分析 食品生产 虚拟水 虚拟水贸易 水资源短缺 粮食安全 

分 类 号：F30[经济管理—产业经济]