基于门限自回归模型的合肥高新区生命周期研究  

Research on Life-cycle of Hefei High-tech Zone Based on Threshold Autoregression Model

作　　者：王俊超[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学管理学院,合肥230009

出　　处：《技术经济》2010年第6期29-34,共6页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：安徽省软科学研究计划项目"合肥高新区"二次创业"与创新体系建设研究"课题的资助(07030503002)

摘　　要：本文将生命周期理论引入高新区经济发展研究中,通过定量方法评价其生命周期,运用门限自回归模型方法对合肥高新区1991—2008年经济综合指标增长进行研究,识别和检验高新区生命周期呈现的基本特征,并通过三区制门限自回归模型描述高新区经济周期波动,为高新区"二次创业"的全面提升提供理论和实践上的决策参考。This paper introduces life-cycle theory into the study of the economic development in high-tech zone,evaluate life-cycle through the quantitative method,conducts a research on the growth of comprehensive economic indicators from 1991 to 2008 in hefei high-tech zone using the threshold autoregression model method,indentifies and tests the major characteristics of the life-cycle in high-tech zone and depicts economic cycle of high-tech zone using three-regimed threshold autoregression model.It provides comprehensive decision-making references theoretically and practically to the ＂second-development＂ in the high-tech zone.

关 键 词：门限自回归模型 生命周期 高新区 

分 类 号：F276.44[经济管理—企业管理]