基于时序分析的四川省中小学师资需求预测  

The Prediction of Teachers' Demand in the Primary and High Schools in Sichuan Province Based on Time Series Analysis

作　　者：苟斌娥[1] 张健[1] 王珊[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川师范大学数学与软件科学学院,成都610066 [2]四川师范大学教师教育学院,成都610066

出　　处：《四川教育学院学报》2010年第6期18-21,共4页Journal of Sichuan College of Education

基　　金：可视化计算与虚拟现实四川省重点实验室"四川教育发展状况数据调研与分析"(0912004)课题成果

摘　　要：运用时间序列分析法对四川省出生人口建立非平稳时间序列模型和回归模型的组合模型,对高中毛入学率建立Logistic生长曲线复合模型,进而对2010-2020年的中小学在校学生人数及教师需求量进行预测。结果显示四川省未来10年中小学在校生数将会减少542万余人,小学教师逐渐超标,高中教师严重不足。高等师范院校近两年可以按5%左右的比例扩大招生,重点培养高中教师。A model combined by non -stationary time series model and regression model is established for the birth population in Si- chuan Province. The Logistic Growth Curve Medel is established for the high school enrollment rate. It is predicted that the student popu- lation and the teachers＇demand in the primary and high schools in the future. In the next 10 years, the number of students will reduce 5. 42 million. The primary school will have a large surplus of teachers and high school will lack for teachers in serious. Normal College can expand enrollment in 5% in the next two years and pay more attention on the high school teachers＇training.

关 键 词：时间序列分析 预测 在校生数 教师需求量 

分 类 号：G526.6[文化科学—教育学]