我国建筑业周期波动的测度  

Measuring the cyclic fluctuations in China's construction industry

作　　者：孙延芳[1,2] 金维兴[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学土木工程学院,陕西西安710055 [2]西部建筑科技国家重点实验室(筹),陕西西安710055

出　　处：《西安建筑科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第4期595-598,共4页Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学资金资助项目(70173037)

摘　　要：根据国内生产总值中的建筑业指数,用经济周期波动测度方法中的"剩余法"对改革开放以来中国建筑业的周期波动进行了测定.根据测定结果中的建筑业周期波动率图和"谷-谷"划分原则将改革开放以来中国建筑业周期波动划分为五个周期,同时对每个周期的波动高度、深度、幅度和平均位势等特征进行了计算分析.结果表明我国建筑业周期波动已从初期的短周期、波动频繁进入了一个稳健、平缓的状态,但其稳定性仍需进一步加强.最后,对其稳定性加强问题提出了相应的对策.Based on the construction industry＇s index,this paper has measured the cycle fluctuations of China＇s construction industry since reform and opening-up with the ＂residual method＂.According to the results of the construction industry volatility charts and the＂Valley-Valley＂ method of division,we divided China＇s construction industry since reform and opening-up into five parts and analyzed the characteristics of each cycle.The results of the measure indicate that the cyclic fluctuations in China＇s construction industry is becoming more and more sleady.However it needs further strengthening its stability.

关 键 词：建筑业 周期波动 测度 剩余法 波动率 

分 类 号：F280[经济管理—国民经济]