基于BP神经网络的沈阳房地产市场预警  

Early Warning Based on BP Neural Networks for Real Estate Market in Shenyang

作　　者：齐锡晶[1] 赵亮[1,2] 吴红爽[3] 寇捷[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学资源与土木工程学院,辽宁沈阳110004 [2]沈阳建筑大学土木工程学院,辽宁沈阳110168 [3]沈阳农业大学水利学院,辽宁沈阳110161

出　　处：《东北大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第9期1353-1356,共4页Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science)

基　　金：辽宁省自然科学基金资助项目(20072010)

摘　　要：结合沈阳房地产市场的特点,借助监测、评价、预警等环节的有机结合,设置预警指标体系;依托人工神经网络(BP模型),选取了11年(1998年～2008年)预警指标的数据,其中前9年的数据作为训练样本,后2年的数据作为检测样本.通过1 538次贝叶斯归一化网络训练,达到了目标误差的要求,其网络仿真效果有着较高的精度和可信度.模型分析与市场实践的对比反映出,2007和2008年的市场都比较活跃;该模型不仅可以用于市场预警,而且有利于促进房地产市场的健康与可持续发展.An early warning index system was set up by combining the characteristics of the real estate market in Shenyang with such functions as monitoring,evaluation and early warning.According to the artificial neural network（BP model）,11 data as early warning indexes were chosen in the range from the year 1998 to 2008,among which the data of the first 9 years were used as trained samples with the data of the last 2 years as tested samples.Trained with the Bayesian normalized network 1 538 times,the target accuracy was achieved with high dependability as verfied by the network simulation results.The comparison between modeling analysis and actual market situation showed that the market is fairly brisk in both 2007 and 2008.The model proposed will benefit the sound and sustainable development of real estate market in addition to its effect of early warning on the market.

关 键 词：房地产市场 预警 指标体系 人工神经网络 BP模型 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]