基于时间序列的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测方法  

Prediction Method of Mine Gas Emission Based on Time Series

作　　者：孟海东[1] 孙搏[1] 司子稳[1] 王睿智[1] 施兰兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学矿业工程学院,内蒙古包头014010

出　　处：《工矿自动化》2010年第12期24-27,共4页Journal Of Mine Automation

摘　　要：由于矿井瓦斯浓度的变化受多种因素共同影响,矿井瓦斯涌出量预测经常出现无法获得一部分变量的情况。针对该问题,提出了一种基于时间序列的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测方法,详细介绍了采用时间序列AR模型对矿井瓦斯涌出量进行预测的具体实现。实验结果表明,该方法对矿井瓦斯涌出量的预测误差率为4.3%,预测比较可靠。Because change of mine gas concentration is influenced by various factors,so prediction of mine gas emission can＇t get some variables.To solve the problem,the paper proposed a prediction method of mine gas emission based on time series.It introduced implementation of using AR model of time series to predict mine gas emission in details.The experiment result showed that error rate of prediction for mine gas emission with the method was 4.3% and the prediction is reliable.

关 键 词：矿井 瓦斯涌出量预测 时间序列 参数估计 AR模型 

分 类 号：TD712.5[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]