免费政策实施后儿童辍学问题实证研究——基于COX比例风险模型的分析  

An Empirical Study on School Dropout after the Implement of Free Tuition Policy

作　　者：常宝宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学教育学部

出　　处：《青年研究》2010年第6期39-45,共7页Youth Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金"十一五"规划项目"免费政策实施后西部地区教育发展面临的困难及其对策"(项目批准号为BGA070049)的阶段性成果;北京师范大学教育学部学生学术科研基金资助

摘　　要：农村儿童辍学一直是影响我国基础教育发展的最大障碍,免费政策的实施对儿童辍学的影响并不明显。利用来自西部3省9县儿童和家长的数据,研究发现,儿童入学年龄越大,辍学的可能性就越大;少数民族相对汉族儿童更容易辍学。母亲受教育年限、兄弟姐妹个数、学习用品数量对儿童辍学的影响较为明显,其中学业成绩是影响儿童辍学最为主要的因素,家庭经济可能是影响儿童辍学的重要潜在变量,上学距离对儿童辍学的影响并不明显,过早寄宿会增加儿童辍学的风险。The biggest obstacle to the development of our basic education is rural children' s dropping out of school,which has not been obviously improved since the implement of free tuition policy.Based on the data collected from the 9 counties of 3 Provinces in the west,the results show that the older children have higher possibility of dropping out than the younger;minority children are relatively easier to drop out;the number of brothers and sisters,mothers' education standards and the number of school supplies affect children's dropping out rate.Academic performance is the major factor while economy may be an important potential variable to predict the dropping out.Moreover,the distance to school is not an obvious predictor while boarding too early will increase the risk of dropping out.

关 键 词：免费政策 中小学生 辍学 

分 类 号：G639.2[文化科学—教育学]