火灾等级标准问题的数量化研究  

A Quantitative Discussion about Fire Rating Standards

作　　者：王晨[1] 

机构地区：[1]武警学院消防工程系,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《武警学院学报》2010年第12期5-7,共3页Journal of the Armed Police Academy

摘　　要：在定性分析现有火灾等级标准的基础上,做出了火灾等级标准的数量化探讨。将D-S证据理论方法应用到火灾等级的综合评价中,将死亡人数、重伤人数、直接财产损失三个重要指标作为评定证据进行信息汇集,将汇集结果作为评定标准,针对中国消防年鉴中530起重、特大火灾进行实例计算,并做出总体分析、特例分析和边界值分析。结果表明该方法克服了单因素评价的不足,使评价更加科学、合理。On the basis of qualitative analysis of the present fire rating standards,this paper is on the quantitative discussion of fire rating.D-S evidence theory approach is applied to the comprehensive evaluation of the fire rating and it takes the three key indicators-the number of death,serious injuries,and the number of direct property loss,as evaluation proofs to conduct data-aggregation.And then with this data-aggregation as an assessment standard,an overall analysis,an exception analysis,and a boundary value analysis are conducted in the calculation of the 530 big fires mentioned in China Fire Protection Yearbook.The result shows that the method can overcome the lack of single-factor evaluation,to make assessment more scientific and reasonable.

关 键 词：D-S证据理论 火灾等级标准 基本概率赋值 信息融合 

分 类 号：D631.6[政治法律—政治学]