基于灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型对到港外贸船舶数量的预测研究  

Forecast and Study of Number of Foreign Trade Vessels Arriving in Port Based on Gray Theory Model GM(1,1)

作　　者：舒晓武[1] 盛群陆[2] 王初生[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学,天津300072 [2]天津市政工程设计研究院,天津300051 [3]天津港(集团)有限公司,天津300461

出　　处：《港工技术》2010年第6期46-48,共3页Port Engineering Technology

基　　金：天津市科技支撑计划重点资助项目(09ZCKFSF01900)

摘　　要：以天津港多年到港外贸船舶数量统计分析为基础,采用灰色理论模型对到港外贸船舶数量进行比较分析和预测,揭示其内在规律。研究表明,灰色系统理论GM(1,1)预测的相对误差不超过6.9%;天津港外贸船舶数量在短期调整后,依然会保持较快增长势头,未来天津港外贸货物吞吐量增长依然可期。On the basis of the statistic analysis on the number of foreign trade vessels arriving in Tianjin Port for years,gray system theory model is used to compare,analyze and forecast the number of foreign trade vessels arriving in Tianjin Port.Its inherent law is revealed too.The above research result shows that the gray system theory GM（1,1） can effectively predict the number of foreign trade vessels,and the relative error does not exceed 6.9%.It is predicted that the number of foreign trade vessels reaching Tianjin Port can keep a rapid growth after a short-term adjustment.Meanwhile,the growth of foreign trade cargo of Tianjin Port is also forecast in the future.

关 键 词：天津港 外贸船舶 灰色理论 GM(1 1)模型 预测 

分 类 号：U652.1[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]