现代货币数量论与中国“高货币化”成因的再分析——兼论汇率制度改革对货币化的影响  

Reanalysis of the Modern Quantity Theory of Money and Determinants of China's High Monetization —Also as a Discussion on Foreign Exchange Reform's Impacts on Monetization

作　　者：杜江[1] 唐贵萍[2] 唐喻婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610064 [2]上海财经大学经济学院,上海200434

出　　处：《四川大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2011年第1期92-99,共8页Journal of Sichuan University：Philosophy and Social Science Edition

摘　　要：在苗文龙《现代货币数量论与中国"高货币化"成因》一文(《数量经济技术经济研究》2007年第12期)的基础上,根据货币数量理论,从理论上分析我国存在"失踪"货币和"高货币化"的原因,运用GARCH模型再次实证分析了经济增长、外汇储备、银行利率对我国货币化的影响。研究结果显示:我国高货币化、低通胀并存,即我国存在"失踪"货币,这是由我国高而平稳的经济增长率、低位运行的投资收益率、低位平稳的物价波动等因素造成的,同时,贸易顺差和外国直接投资的增加,导致外汇储备的快速增加,也使得我国基础货币的投放加大,提高了货币化水平;我国的货币、产出和物价水平之间存在长期的稳定关系。汇率改革在一定程度上降低了我国的货币化比率,对抑制"高货币化"具有作用。尽管自2010年7月以来我国出现了较大的通货膨胀压力,但是从长期来看我国仍然存在"失踪"货币的现象。Based on Miao Wenlong（2007） and the quantity theory of money,this paper analyzes the reasons for money ＂disappearance＂ and ＂high level of monetization＂ in China.Using the GARCH model,it also empirically analyzes the impacts of economic growth,foreign exchange reserve and bank rate on monetization in China.The research result demonstrates that both high monetization and low inflation exist in China,which means China has the phenomenon of money ＂disappearance.＂ It is caused by factors such as the high and stable economic growth rate,the low investment yield,and the low and stable inflation rate.Meanwhile,the increase in trade surplus and foreign direct investment,which led to the booming of foreign exchange reserve,has also boosted the money supply and improved the level of monetization.There is a stable and long lasting relationship among the currency,output and price level.The foreign exchange reform has decreased China＇s monetization rate to some degree and influenced the restraint of ＂high monetization.＂ Although China has been faced with high pressure of inflation since July 2010,the phenomenon of money ＂disappearance＂ still exists in the long run.

关 键 词：货币化比率 现代货币数量论 GARCH模型 

分 类 号：F822.1[经济管理—财政学]