房地产周期波动及价格趋势分析与预测  

Analyzing and Forecasting on the Cyclical Fluctuations and Price Trend of the Real Estate

作　　者：祁神军[1] 万清[1,2] 张云波[1] 毛茂松[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学土木工程学院,福建厦门361021 [2]深圳大学土木工程学院,广东深圳518060

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2011年第2期288-291,共4页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：国侨办科研基金资助项目(06Q0052);华侨大学高层次人才引进基金资助项目(09BS623)

摘　　要：采用K线理论及工具,剖析房地产周期波动机理,并以月为周期绘制厦门市整体区域和分区房地产市场K线图,结合厦门市房地产经济特征以及宏观经济形势及政策,对厦门市房地产周期波动进行预测和判断。实验结果表明,基于K线理论的房地产周期分析是一种有效的研究手段,能够反映房地产周期波动的特征及趋势,是一种值得推广的研究方法。The K-line theory was adopted to analyze and forecast the short-term and/or long-term fluctuation and price trend of real estate.The interior mechanism of real estate cycle fluctuation was analyzed by K-line theory and its tool.The monthly fluctuation of Xiamen city was investigated,and then the trend of real estate was also analyzed and forecasted with K-line theory.The experience results show that the K-line theory of the real estate cycle analysis is an effective method to reflect the characteristics of the real estate cycle fluctuations and the price trend.It is a worthy popularizing research method for real estate.

关 键 词：K线理论 房地产周期波动 价格趋势预测 

分 类 号：F713.54[经济管理—市场营销]