我国经济周期波动态势的区域划分与动态特征检验  

The Phases and Duration of China Business Cycle

作　　者：刘金全[1] 王雄威[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心 [2]吉林大学

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2011年第6期5-10,共6页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘十二五'期间我国经济周期波动态势与宏观经济调控模式研究”(10zd&006);国家自然科学基金项目“非线性随机波动模型估计方法及应用研究”(70971055)

摘　　要：本文利用贝叶斯估计结合门限自回归模型,对我国经济周期波动态势进行了分析和判断,检验中发现我国经济周期波动动态机制变迁的门限增长率为9.36%。当经济增长率高于这个门限值后,经济周期波动具有自稳定的均值回归特征;当经济增长率低于这个门限值后,经济周期波动具有向更高稳态的迁移特征,这意味着我国现阶段的经济增长过程具有内生的稳定性,这也是近年来我国经济波动率趋于稳定的重要原因。从经济周期波动的动态轨迹判断,我国经济仍然具备保持快速稳定增长的基础,因此需要利用有效宏观调控来保证快速稳定增长的实现。This paper employs an analytic framework combined TAR model and Bayesian estimation to analyze busi- ness cycle of China. Based on the chosen sample, we obtain posteriors for threshold and parameters under different phases of business cycle in virtue of Bayesian estimation. After carefully studying these results, we find that these results are more competitive than those obtained under classical statistical methods. In addition, the results display that if economic growth is extremely high and persists for a period of time, then the economic slump will come for a while. As for the duration of business cycle, we conclude that the phase of low growth does not last long; however, when the economy is growing at a reasonable high speed, this phase is sustainable.

关 键 词：经济周期 门限自回归模型 贝叶斯估计 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济]