风险发生可能性测度研究——以合作技术创新中隐性知识转移引发的商业秘密风险为例  

The risk probability measurement——A case study on the trade secret risk caused by the tacit knowledge transferring in collaborative technological innovation

作　　者：苏世彬[1] 黄瑞华[2] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学管理学院,福建福州350108 [2]西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《科研管理》2011年第6期36-41,48,共7页Science Research Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(项目号:08JC630072)(2009.1-2011.12);国家自然科学基金项目(项目号:70902041)(2010.1-2012.12)和国家自然科学基金项目(项目号:70771088)(2008.1-2010.12)

摘　　要：为弥补现有风险管理理论中风险可能性测度的不足,并为合作技术创新中隐性知识转移引发的商业秘密风险量化管理提供依据,本文对合作技术创新中隐性知识转移引发的商业秘密风险可能性测度特点进行了分析,并选择了证据理论和主观概率作为合作技术创新中隐性知识转移引发的商业秘密风险可能性测度方法,然后,提出了f(Ai)=Bel(Ai)+|Ai|/|Θ|×[pl(Ai)-Bel(Ai)]作为合作技术创新中隐性知识转移引发的商业秘密风险可能性测度最终模型,最后给出了一个具体的算例。In order to improve the lack of risk probability measurement in the risk management theory,and provide references for quantitative management in trade secret risks caused by tacit knowledge transferring in collaborative technological innovation,the features of trade secret risk probability measurement caused by tacit knowledge transferring in collaborative technological innovation are analyzed,and the combinition of evidential theory and subjective probability is selected to measure trade secret risk probability caused by tacit knowledge transferring in collaborative technological innovation based on existing research on risk probability measurement.Then,the f（Ai）=Bel（Ai）＋｜Ai｜/｜Θ｜×[pl（Ai）-Bel（Ai）] is proposed as an ultimate model to measure trade secret risk probability caused by tacit knowledge transferring in collaborative technological innovation.Finally,a concrete calculative example is given.

关 键 词：合作技术创新 隐性知识转移 商业秘密风险 可能性测度 证据理论 主观概率 

分 类 号：O174.12[理学—数学] F224.7[理学—基础数学]