基于风险分析方法的首车疏解车头时距  

Modeling first discharge headway based on hazard analysis

作　　者：刘明君[1,2] 孙全欣[2] 高利平 陈振起 毛保华[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家发展和改革委员会综合运输研究所 [2]北京交通大学城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室 [3]北京军区66019部队29分队 [4]扬州市规划局城市规划编制研究中心

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2011年第5期1262-1267,共6页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：'973'国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2006CB705507);国家自然科学基金项目(70631001;70571005);北京市科委项目(D07020601400702)

摘　　要：构建了信号交叉口首车疏解车头时距的风险分析模型。提出了模型参数标定方法,并以北京为例,通过信号交叉口的实测数据标定了参数。根据参数标定结果,对混合交通流情况下首车疏解车头时距的分布进行了描述,并定量分析了各种影响因素的效果。结果表明,北京信号交叉口首车疏解车头时距长于其他国家和地区。它受车辆类型、交叉口环境的复杂程度和车流特性等因素影响明显。起动干扰使首车平均疏解车头时距由3.99 s增长到5.47 s,行驶干扰使之由4.15 s延长到6.65 s,极大地降低了交通运行效率。A hazard analysis model was built for the first discharge headway of queuing vehicles at the signalized intersections.The calibration method was proposed for the model parameters and the calibration was performed using the traffic data collected from the signalized intersections in Beijing.The distribution of the first discharge headways in the heterogeneous traffic flow was described and the effects of different factors were analyzed quantitatively.The results show the first discharge headway at the signalized intersections in Beijing is much longer than those in other countries and regions.It is obviously affected by the vehicle type,the complexity of the environment at the intersection and the traffic flow behavior.The starting disturbance increases the average first discharge headway from 3.99 s to 5.47 s,the moving disturbance prolongs it from 4.15 s to 6.65 s,both factors reduce the traffic operation efficiency significantly.

关 键 词：交通运输工程 首车疏解车头时距 风险分析 混合交通流 信号交叉口 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]