基于灾变灰预测的电力峰谷差异常的预测模型研究  

A Forecasting Model for Electric Power Peakvalley Difference Based on Calamities Grey Prediction Theory

作　　者：赵海青[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学数理学院,河北保定071003

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2011年第17期121-125,共5页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

摘　　要：电力负荷预测过程中,峰谷值波动是一种正常现象,当高峰期负荷急速攀升时,可能出现峰谷差异常问题(如异常值、随机误差项的异方差等),则会给电力企业带来麻烦和损失.为了对负荷峰谷差异常进行有效的预测,构建了一个基于灾变灰预测的电力峰谷差异常的预测模型,并结合实例说明了此模型的可行性和有效性.In the power load forecast process, the peak-valley value undulation is one kind of normal phenomenon, when the peak load climbs rapidly, possibly has the peak valley difference unusual problem, then can give the electric power enterprise to bring the trouble and loses.Thus, this paper sets up a forecasting model for electric power peak-valley difference based on calamities grey prediction theory, the feasibility and validity of the model were tested by a case subsequently.

关 键 词：电力负荷 GM(1 1)模型 峰谷差 灾变灰预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]