调水枢纽下游河道内最小生态环境需水的可靠性分析  

Ananlysis on reliability of minimum eco-environmental water demand from downstream channel of water transfer project

作　　者：张永[1,2] 丁志宏[1] 冯平[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072 [2]水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京100120

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2011年第10期8-11,共4页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50879051)

摘　　要：在对生态环境需水可靠性分析所涉及的诸影响因素进行识别后,以已有的南水北调西线一期工程引水枢纽下游河道内的最小生态环境需水量研究成果为基础,构建了调水枢纽下游河道内最小生态环境需水可靠性分析模型,运用蒙特卡洛法对有关最小生态环境需水的可靠性进行了定量描述。结果表明:南水北调西线一期工程的规划设计方案从河道内生态环境需水安全的角度看是可行的。Through identifying all the impact factors related to the analysis on the reliability of the eco-environmental water demand, a model for the analysis on the minimum eco-environmental water demand from the downstream channel of the water transfer project of the Phase I of the West-Route of the South-To-North Water Transfer Project is established based on the existing study result of the eco-environmental water demand concerned, and then the reliability of the water demand is quantitatively described with Monte Carlo method. The result shows that the planning and design scheme for the Phase I of the West-Route of the SouthTo-North Water Transfer Project is considered to be feasible from the aspect of the safety of the eco-environmental water demand from the river channel therein.

关 键 词：南水北调西线一期工程 生态环境需水 可靠性分析 蒙特卡洛法 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源] X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]