突发事件影响度的仿真研究  

Simulation Research on the Influence Degree of Rare Event

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作  者:鞠彦兵[1] 王爱华[2] 赵晗萍[3] 

机构地区:[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [2]北京大学教育学院,北京100871 [3]北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100871

出  处:《数学的实践与认识》2011年第21期31-39,共9页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基  金:国家自然科学基金委员会与中国民用航空总局联合资助(60672180);国家自然科学基金资助(70972007);北京市自然科学基金资助(9102015)

摘  要:以突变理论为基础,给出了突发事件影响度的仿真评价方法.通过采用三角分布描述专家对子指标影响程度的估计,建立了突发事件影响度的仿真模型.通过对仿真模型进行独立重复仿真实验,获得突发事件影响度的评价值并进行统计分析.为克服评价结果偏高而区分度不高的缺陷,研究了评价值的转换方法,转换后的评价值能更好地体现人们对突发事件的认知程度.该方法可将定量、定性指标纳入同一模型中,并可避免人为确定权重的主观性.算例表明,在基于突变理论的评价模型中结合系统仿真的思想,是研究突发事件影响度的有效方法.该方法具有良好的可靠性,也可适用于其它综合评价问题.Based on the catastrophe theory, a new simulation method for influence degree evaluation of catastrophe is proposed. The method has three innovations. First, Triangle Distribution is used to get evaluation values which quantify description sentences given by experts. Second, through generating random numbers, a simulation evaluation model is established to evaluate the influence degree of rare event. Running the simulation independently and repea'tedly, evaluation values can be obtained and be analyzed statistically. Third, in order to reflect the experts' intents correctly and to avoid the defects of high evaluation values and of incomparability between evaluation values, a technique of evaluation value transformation is brought out. The transformed evaluation values can represent the people's perception to rare event correctly. The method can incorporate qualitative indexes and quantitative indexes in a model, and avoid the subjective quantification of evaluation indexes. An illustrative demonstration is given to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the idea, which integrates the system simulation into the catastrophe evaluation model. This method is proven to be reliable, and can be widely used in comprehensive evaluation problems.

关 键 词:突发事件 影响度 突变理论 仿真模型 

分 类 号:C93[经济管理—管理学] O242.1[理学—计算数学]

 

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