一个可供ENSO预测的海气耦合环流模式及1997/1998ENSO的预测  

A Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model for ENSO Prediction and 1997/1998 ENSO Forecast

作　　者：周广庆[1] 李旭[1] 曾庆存[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》1998年第4期62-70,共9页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金;国家攀登项目

摘　　要：利用中国科学院大气物理研究所设计发展的具有较高分辨率的热带太平洋和全球大气耦合环流模式，设计了一个初始化方案，建立了ＥＮＳＯ预测系统，进行了系统性的预测试验。预测结果检验评估表明，该预测系统表现出较强的预报能力，赤道中东太平洋地区（Ｎｉｎｏ３和Ｎｉｎｏ３４）海表温度距平预报相关技巧高于０５２的预报可持续１８个月，该预测系统可应用到试验性的海温预测实践中。利用该系统对１９９７／１９９８年ＥＮＳＯ进行了实际预测，表明预测是成功的，预测的海温距平已提供给今年我国夏季降水预测使用，取得了良好的预测效果。An ENSO forecast system was established by designing an initialization to the coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model which was developed in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and systematic forecast experiments were performed. The results indicated that the correlation skill between the prediction and observation in eastern and central equatorial Pacific was above 0 52 up to at least 18 months in advance. By using this forecast system, the 1997/1998 El Nio was predicted successfully, and the benefit were obtained from the predicted SSTA to the prediction of the rainfall in China in summer.

关 键 词：海气耦合环流模式 初始化 ENSO预测 1997/1998ENSO 

分 类 号：P732.4[天文地球—海洋科学] P732.6