十五世纪以来南方涛动指数与北太平洋海温场的重建  

RECONSTRUCTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AND PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR THE LAST 500 YEARS

作　　者：宋洁 张先恭[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象局气象科学研究院

出　　处：《应用气象学报》1990年第1期34-44,共11页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

摘　　要：本文利用中国近五百年旱涝等级资料,用典型相关的方法重建了15世纪以来的南方涛动指数(SOI)和北太平洋海温(SST)场。在 SOI 的重建中校准了1913—1973年校准期方差的40%,在1852—1912年的独立验证期验证了方差的20%;在北太平洋 SST 的重建中校准的方差较高,其中赤道东太平洋 SST 的校准方差达60%,在近100年的定性检验中效果也很好。说明用中国历史时期的旱涝资料能够在一定程度上重建出历史时期的 ENSO 事件。通过对15世纪以来 SO 和 SST 重建值的分析发现,ENSO 事件不但具有明显的周期性,而且还有250年左右的阶段性变化。SO 和 SST 不仅存在2—7年公认的周期,而且历史上 SO 还有10.6年、赤道东太平洋 SST 还有25—28.5年及100年左右与太阳活动有关的周期。进一步分析还得出,18、19世纪及20世纪前期 SO 低指数事件发生相对较少,15世纪后期、16、17世纪及20世纪后期 SO 低指数事件发生较多;且历史上的低指数多发期与气候上的冷期一致,而低指数少发期则与气候上的暖期一致;气候上的干旱(湿润)期则与东太平洋长期偏冷(暖)、西太平洋长期偏暖(冷)相对应。In this paper,a canonical correlation technique has been used to reconstruct the seasonal in-dex of the Southern Oscillation and seasonal Pacific SST from the dryness/wetness in China forthe last 500 years.About 40 percent of the SO variance during the calibration period of 1913—1973,and about 20 percent of the variance for an independent period of 1852—1912 have beencaliberated and verified,respectively.In the reconstruction of the Pacific SST,about 60 percentSST variance has been caliberated in the equatorial eastern Pacific areas and the estimate valuehas been efficiently verified over 100 years.It shows that the past ENSO events can be recon-structed in certain extent by using dryness/wetness data in China.It is found that ENSO eventsnot only has apparent periodicity,but also has about 250 years stage change.Both SO and SSThave the well-known 2—7year periodicities,besides,SO has 10.6 year period and SST has 25—28.5 and 100 year periods which relates with the solar activities.It is also found that the lowSOI events are estimated to be less frequency during the 18th,19th and the early 20th centuriesthan the later 15th,16th,17th and later 20th centuries,and that the frequent(rare)occurrence ofthe low SOI events mentioned above corresponds with the climatic cold(warm)period,and thatthe dryness(wetness)period in China is related to the cold(warm)East Pacific and warm(cold)West Pacific.

关 键 词：南方涛动 北太平洋 赤道东太平洋 温场 ENSO 气候异常 冷期 指数和 暖期 海平面气压 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]