汶川中强余震发展节律及其精确多项式对6级以上强余震趋势的预测研究  

THE MID-STRONG AFTERSHOCK DEVELOPING RHYTHM OF WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE AND ITS PRECISION POLYNOMIAL MODEL FOR THE ESTIMATE RESEARCH OF Ms≥ 6.0 STRONG AFTERSHOCK TRENDS

作　　者：薛丁[1] 曹刚[1] 张建业[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区地震局,内蒙古呼和浩特010010

出　　处：《高原地震》2011年第4期13-16,共4页Plateau Earthquake Research

摘　　要：对汶川地震序列分析,发现该序列中Ms≥4.7级余震活动有一定的可数节律,且强余震发生在节律节点上有重复特征。基于上述现象,对该节律建立了一个数学模型,为定量地预测震区6级以上强余震趋势提供了一个预测研究的方法。By the analysis of Wenchuan earthquake sequence, it is found that the numerable rhythm of Ms≥ 4.7 aftershocks exists. The stronger aftershocks occurred at rhythm peaks repeatedly. Based on this rhythm, the authors made a mathematical model that provides a predicting method of Ms ≥ 6. 0 strong aftershock tendency for the Wenehuan seismic area.

关 键 词：汶川地震序列 节律 数学建模 强余震 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]