基于复杂网络的台风灾害演化系统风险分析与控制研究  

Risk Analysis and Control for the Evolution Disaster System of Typhoon Based on Complex Network

作　　者：陈长坤[1,2] 纪道溪[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学土木建筑学院防灾科学与安全技术研究所,湖南长沙410075 [2]中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室,安徽合肥230027

出　　处：《灾害学》2012年第1期1-4,共4页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50706059);中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室开放课题(HZ2009-KF05);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助

摘　　要：基于复杂网络理论,提出了一种针对自然灾害演化系统的风险分析与控制的思路与方法。以"莫拉克"台风为例,构建了包含30个危机事件与39条连接边的台风网络演化模型;采用网络节点的出入度、子网节点数和包含节点的支链数进行风险分析,并确定关键节点,进一步提出断链方案和控制建议。结果表明:狂风、暴雨、洪水、山体滑坡、泥石流、交通堵塞和村庄毁坏等事件风险较大,是台风灾害系统的关键节点。据此提出建议:提高城市排水系统运行能力,加强交通系统监管和调度力度,启动农村人员安置和灾后重建预案。Based on the complex networks theory, an idea or method of risk analysis and controlling on natural disasters evolution system is proposed. Taking the Morakot as an example, the network model including 30 crisis nodes and 39 evolution connections is established. The out-in degrees, number of nodes in its subnets and number of branched chains that every node involved in the network are discussed for risk analysis, and then the key nodes and the solutions on disconnecting chains are presented. The results show that fierce wind, rainstorm, flood, landslide, mudslide, traffic jam and village-destroying are the crucial nodes in the network. Afterwards the suggestions for disaster controlling are offered, consisting of improving the operation ability of the urban drainage system, reinforcing the supervision and scheduling for traffic system and starting the rural emergency plans of post-disaster placement and reconstruction.

关 键 词：台风灾害 灾害演化 风险分析 断链控制 网络模型 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P426.63[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]