中国高校生源数量分析及预测  

Analysis and prediction of the amount of college suitable candidates in China

作　　者：马丽丽[1] 陈金广[1] 薛纪文[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安工程大学计算机科学学院,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《西安工程大学学报》2011年第6期893-896,共4页Journal of Xi’an Polytechnic University

基　　金：陕西省教育厅科研计划项目(2010JK565);西安工程大学博士科研启动基金(BS1111);2010年西安工程大学计算机公共基础课程教学团队计划项目

摘　　要：在2000年分年龄段人口统计数据和国家教育部公布的历年高校招生数据的基础上,给出了适龄人数的计算方法,对我国过去17年高等教育录取人数进行统计分析.以国家宏观发展战略和《国家中长期教育改革和发展规划纲要(2010～2020)》为参考,对未来8年的高校生源数量进行预测,得到了高校每年的招生规模将在今后8年内稳定在750万左右的预测结论.该研究结果表明,在未来8年,高校生源并不会因为适龄青年人数的大幅度降低而锐减.Based on the population census data by age in 2000 and the data of higher educational enrollments released by ministry of education of the People′s Republic of China,the method of the amount of young man with suitable age to entry college is given,and the higher educational enrollments in the past 17 years is analyzed.Subsequently,based on the national macro developing strategy and ＂National education reform and development of long-term planning programs（2010-2020）＂,the enrollments are predicted in the following 8 years.As a result,a conclusion is obtained that the higher educational enrollments will hold steady at about 7 500 000 over the next 8 years,and it indicates that the college enrollments will not decrease sharply.

关 键 词：高校生源 高校招生数量 高等教育 年龄结构 状态估计 

分 类 号：G640[文化科学—高等教育学] C92[文化科学—教育学]