基于Copula函数我国林业经济发展与气候之间的关系研究  

Relationship between China’s Forestry Economy Development and Climate Based on Copula Function

作　　者：向中华[1] 易文德[2] 曾胜[3] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学经济管理学院,成都610031 [2]重庆文理学院数学与统计学院,重庆402160 [3]重庆工商大学财政金融学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《林业经济》2012年第2期24-27,共4页Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“我国能源消费总量控制与对策研究”(编号:11BJY058);教育部人文社科基金资助项目“证券市场风险因素相依结构研究”(编号:11XJC790004)

摘　　要：我国林业经济在国民经济发展中有着重要的地位，森林与气候之间也有着密切的关系。通过历史数据基于Copula函数模型验证林业经济发展与气温、降水量、湿度与日照数等气候因素之间的相关关系，林业生产总值与气温正相关，与湿度、日照数负相关。当我们认识到林业经济总产值与气温、降水量、湿度、日照数之间的相依关系和相依结构，就可以采取相应的措施。这将会对制定宏观经济发展规划与森林资源开发战略，具有一定的指导与实践意义。Forestry economy of China plays an important role in national economic development. Forest and cli- mate have close relationship as well. Through the historical data and Copula function verify the relationship be- tween forestry econonlic development and climate factors such as the temperature, precipitation, moisture and sunshine. Forestry total output value has positive correlation with temperature, however, has negative correlation with moisture and sunshine. When realize this dependence relation and dependence structure among forestry to- tal output and temperature, precipitation, moisture and sunshine, should take corresponding measures. It will have guidance and practical meaning for macro economic development planning and forest resources develop- ment strategy.

关 键 词：林业经济 气候 COPULA函数 相依关系 相依结构 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济] P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]