动态因子模型在房价波动因素分解中的应用——基于中国26个城市房价波动的分析  

An Application Research on Dynamic Factor Model of Housing Prices Fluctuation:Based on 26 Cities' in China

作　　者：梁云芳[1,2] 行成生 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,辽宁大连116025 [2]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,辽宁大连116025 [3]百瑞信托有限责任公司,河南郑州450018

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2012年第6期7-16,共10页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：全国优秀博士学位论文作者专项资金(201005);国家社科基金重大项目(10zd&010)

摘　　要：利用动态多因子模型,对26个大中城市1999年1月-2010年5月的房地产价格波动进行因素分解,分别提取了表示区域特征的区域因子和城市特征的城市因子,从区域因子的特征看各区域房价波动受政府调控和宏观经济形势影响较大.因素分解结果表明:各区域因子对区域内各城市房价波动的影响贡献度较大,而且在经济发达地区这个特征更明显.对区域因子互动关系的研究表明:我国大中城市房价波动存在从东部沿海发达地区分别向东北,中部,西部蔓延的"波纹效应".本文的结论有助于加强不同区域房地产市场调控和监管的针对性.This paper explores the different cities＇ housing prices volatility with the dynamic factor model from 1999：01 to 2010：05.We firstly extract the regional factors and urban factors about 26 cities in 6 regions,and the features of regional factors are highly correlated with the macro-regulations.The results of variance decomposition show that every regional factor has great contribution to the housing price fluctuations of the cities in itself region,especially in the developed regions.The tests on the interactional relationships among regions＇ house prices show that house price fluctuations in our country exist ＂ripple effect＂,which is from eastern coastal developed regions to northeast,central and western regions.The conclusions are helpful to enhance the effects of macro-control in different regions.

关 键 词：房价波动 因素分解 动态因子模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F293.3