热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)实时监测预测业务  

The Real-Time MJO Monitoring and Prediction Operation in NCC

作　　者：贾小龙[1] 袁媛[1] 任福民[1] 张勤 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,北京100081 [2]NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center (CPC),美国

出　　处：《气象》2012年第4期425-431,共7页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40905035);国家重点基础研究发展(973)计划(2010CB428606);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200906015和GYHY200806004);科技部科技支撑项目(2009BAC51B05)共同资助

摘　　要：参考目前国际上普遍认可的Wheeler和Hendon设计的MJO监测指标,设计了适合开展实时业务监测的MJO计算方法,初步在国家气候中心建立了逐日的MJO实时监测业务,通过与国外同类监测结果的比较分析表明,监测指标可以很好地描述MJO的强度和传播特征,与国外同类监测产品有很好的一致性。另外,引入了两种统计方法进行了针对MJO指数的实时预测,对预测结果的检验表明,对MJO在两周内有较好的预测技巧,其中利用滞后线性回归方法(PCL)的预测技巧要高于自回归模型(ARM)。Based on a popular MJO monitoring method designed by Wheeler and Hendon, a real-time MJOmonitoring index and associated computing method were designed, and then, an MJO monitoring and pre-diction operation system was built up in National Climate Center （NCC）. The monitoring results fromNCC are much consistent with that from the foreign operational departments （e. g. Australia Bureau ofMeteorology）. Monitoring results can give a relative good description of the MJO＇s intensity and propaga-tion. The real-time MJO prediction operation is also set up using two statistical forecast models. Analysison the prediction skill showed that two statistical methods give a skillful forecast within 15 days. Lag line-ar regression model （PCL） has better forecast skill than auto-regressive model （ARM）.

关 键 词：MJO 监测 统计预报 

分 类 号：P433[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]