兴安白桦木材生长轮密度时间序列分析  

Time Series Analysis of the Density of Wood Growth Ring for Betula platyphylla Suk.

作　　者：刘春起 

机构地区：[1]大兴安岭职业学院,黑龙江加格达奇165000

出　　处：《贵州林业科技》2012年第1期14-17,共4页Guizhou Forestry Science and Technology

摘　　要：为进一步提高木材的实际应用价值,并为森林资源经营提供理论支持,对兴安白桦木材生长轮密度的径向变异进行研究。采集兴安白桦试样21株,对其生长轮密度的径向变化规律进行时间序列分析,依据最小信息量AIC原则,选择ARIMA(0,1,1)为最优模型;白噪声检验结果表明,残差序列为白噪声序列,模型诊断通过;序列预测值与实测值相对误差在10%之内,模型获得较好的预测效果。In order to further improve the applicable value of the wood, time series analysis of the density of wood growth ring for Betula platyphylla Suk. was studied. To do this,21 sample trees were col- lected and analyzed by selecting the ARIMA （0, 1, 1） as the best model via AIC criterion. The result showed that the residuals were white noise sequence, and the average relative error of the prediction data was within 10%, indicating that the model had a good prediction result.

关 键 词：白桦 生长轮密度 时间序列分析 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：S781.1[农业科学—木材科学与技术]