动态趋势与结构性差异:中国住房市场支付能力的综合测度  

Dynamic Trends and Structural Differences:A Comprehensive Measure of Housing Affordability in China

作　　者：董昕[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《经济管理》2012年第6期119-127,共9页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金面上项目"基于城乡统筹视角的农民工住房保障政策研究"(20100481201);北京大学-林肯研究院城市发展与土地政策研究中心研究基金项目"中国农村劳动力转移过程中的农民工住房问题研究"(FS-20110901)

摘　　要：鉴于住房支付能力对住房保障政策的重要影响,以及对中国住房市场支付能力一致性判断的缺乏,有必要对中国住房市场的支付能力进行准确测度。本文同时运用房价收入比、住房消费比、剩余收入等多个指标对1998～2010年中国住房市场的支付能力进行测度,并结合房地产业的发展历程,相互印证,综合得出的结论有两方面:一是关于住房支付能力的衡量指标;二是关于中国住房市场支付能力的判断及对住房保障政策的启示。具体内容包括:(1)衡量住房支付能力的指标计算时,除收入和房价外,还应考虑面积等社会住房标准的变动;(2)作为参考指标,中国房价收入比的合理标准在5～7之间比较合适;(3)衡量我国住房支付能力的指标中,房价收入比和剩余收入指标的效果较好,两者反映情况也基本一致;(4)在收入增幅远高于房价增幅的情况下,我国住房市场的支付能力总体不强,且呈现出下降的态势;(5)中国住房支付能力的结构性差异明显,低收入家庭情况趋于恶化,中等收入家庭的住房支付能力也不容乐观。For the important impact of housing affordability to housing subsidies policy, and the lack of agree ment with housing affordability in China, it is necessary to measure the housing affordability accurately. This thesis used several indicators including pricetoincome ratio, renttoincome ratio, and residual income to measure the housing affordability of Chinese housing market from 1998 to 2010, combined with real estate industry development process. There are two kinds of conclusions in this thesis, one kind is about the measure indicators of housing af fordability, and the other kind is about the judgments of housing affordability in China and the revelations to hous ing subsidies policy. The main conclusions about the measure indicators of housing affordability are as follows. Firstly, the change of social housing standards must be considered to calculate the measure indicators of housing affordability, for the housing affordability is strongly influenced by social housing standards such as area in addition to income and hous ing prices. Secondly, as a reference index, between 5 and 7 is a reasonable standard of pricetoincome ratio to measure the housing affordability of Chinese housing market, which is higher than the usually considered standard of between 4 and 6 for developing countries. Thirdly, pricetoincome ratio and residual income are more applicable for Chinese housing market among all the indicators of housing affordability, because of statistical standards and calculation methods, and both of the two indicators have showed the same dynamic trends and structural differences of housin~ affordability in China. Furthermore, several revelations to housing sUDSlClleS policy can Be seen lrom tnc ,ticu^u,c ,,. ,,,,u~,.~ o~.,,.u ability in China. First, housing subsidies policy should be dynamically adjusted according to the trends of housing affordability. Second, the coverage of housing subsidies is closely linked to the structural differences of housing af fordability, the households who have housing affor

关 键 词：住房支付能力 住房保障 房价收入比 住房消费比 剩余收入法 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]