隐性经济约束下的动态最优税负——基于状态空间模型的实证  

Dynamic Optimal Taxes Constrained by Hidden Economy: An Empirical Study——Based on Time-Varying Parameter Model

作　　者：闫海波[1] 陈敬良[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海市200093

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2012年第8期122-127,共6页China Business and Market

基　　金：上海市政府公共政策咨询项目"上海产业结构转型升级与税收结构变化趋势研究"(项目编号:11ZXCJ002)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：隐性经济活动因其逃避税收监管而对宏观税负产生影响。隐性经济作为国民经济核算与监察的遗漏项,客观上起到了减税的作用。在隐性经济影响下,现实经济动态的非均衡性决定了最优税负也是时变的,并不存在一个固定不变的税负水平使经济增长最大化;最优税负是判断现实宏观税负高低的标准,当前税收并非我国经济增长的消减因素,说明宏观税负整体上是合适的。隐性经济领域是潜在的税源,结构性减税在考虑不同产业、不同部门之间税收平衡的同时,更应关注已观测经济与隐性经济税收负担的公平性。Because of the evasion of tax monitoring, hidden economic activities have inverse impact on macro-tax burden As omitted by national economic accounting and supervision, hidden economy plays its role in tax cutting. Influenced by hidden economy, the real economic dynamic imbalance determines that the optimal taxes will be constantly changeable; and there is no fixed level of tax that can realize the maximization of economic growth. Tax income is not the factor stunting economic growth; and the current macro tax is suitable. The field of hidden economy is the potential sources of tax; and we should pay more attention to the fairness of tax on observed economy and hidden economy with the consideration of balancing tax of different industries and sectors in structural tax cutting.

关 键 词：隐性经济 最优税负 时变参数 卡尔曼滤波 

分 类 号：F810.423[经济管理—财政学]