计及二手房交易的房地产市场发展动力机制  

Dynamical Mechanism and Simulation of Second-hand House Transaction in Real Estate Market

作　　者：祁神军[1] 张涛军[1] 张云波[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学土木工程学院,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2013年第1期119-123,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2012J05095);厦门市科技计划基金资助项目(3502Z20125026);华侨大学高层次人才引进基金资助项目(09BS623)

摘　　要：针对房地产市场发展的内在机理,在深入剖析二手房交易对商品房市场影响的基础上,采用系统动力学原理和方法,构建了计及二手房交易的房地产市场发展动力机制及动力模型。以厦门市2000—2009年房地产市场交易数据为基础,采用Vensim PLE软件模拟和预测了厦门市2010—2015年房地产市场发展趋势;调整二手房交易的宏观调控政策,模拟仿真了厦门市房地产市场的影响程度,并提出了相应的调控政策建议。实验结果证明,计及二手房交易的房地产市场发展动力机制和动力模型可定量分析并预测各调控政策对房地产市场的影响程度,亦可为政府对房地产市场的宏观调控提供决策依据。Taking account of the effect of real estate market by the second - hand house transaction, a dynamical mechanism and dynamical model of real estate market was set up. It runs in Vensim PLE software using the data from Xiamen city since 2000. The trend of real estate market was simulated, and its influential degree by the different intervention policies of second - hand house transaction was also simulated to propose the positive advice. The experiment results show that the dynamical model of real estate market taking account of the second ＂hand house transaction was an excellent method to simulate the trend of real estate market and its effective degree by the intervention policies of second - hand house transaction. The model provides scientific support to government for decision -making.

关 键 词：二手房 房地产市场 动力机制 动力模型 仿真研究 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]