考虑OD对出行时间可靠性的道路网容量可靠性  

Road Network Capacity Reliability Considering OD Pair Travel Time Reliability

作　　者：况爱武[1] 黄中祥[1] 唐志强[1] 

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《系统工程》2013年第1期116-120,共5页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51208064;51078044);湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(10JJ6074);湖南省教育厅科学研究项目(11B004)

摘　　要：构建了基于OD对出行时间可靠性的路网容量可靠性双层规划模型,其中下层规划用随机均衡交通分配来描述出行者的路径选择,上层规划为满足出行时间可靠性的基本OD需求乘子最大。假定路段容量服从双侧截尾正态分布,基于Monte Carlo仿真技术和网络均衡流灵敏度分析方法,设计了一种求解路网容量可靠性的启发式算法。用一个小型网络开展了数值分析,验证了所建模型和算法的有效性。A bi-level programming model based on travel time reliability was set up for capacity reliability in this paper. In the model, a stochastic user equilibrium traffic assignment was used to describe traveler＇ route choice behavior in the lower programming, the basic OD traffic demand multiplier was maximized without exceeding the corresponding prescribed travel time threshold in the upper Problem. By assuming that link capacity as continuous truncated normal random variable, using Monte Carlo simulation technique in conjunction with the sensitivity analysis method of road network equilibrium flow, a heuristic algorithm was established to estimate the road network capacity reliability. Some numerical studies on a small road network are presented to demonstrate the validity of the proposed model and algorithm.

关 键 词：容量可靠性 出行时间可靠性 双层规划 随机用户均衡 截尾正态分布 MONTE Carlo仿真 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]