综合客运枢纽机动车流量预测方法研究  

A Study on Motor Vehicle Traffic Prediction Method of Comprehensive Passenger Transportation Hub

作　　者：周本钰[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,成都市610031

出　　处：《公路》2013年第4期145-148,共4页Highway

基　　金：西华大学省级重点实验室开放研究基金项目;项目编号szjj2011-033;四川省科技支撑项目软科学计划;项目编号2010ZR0021

摘　　要：在综合客运枢纽规划中,机动车交通流量预测是枢纽对外交通组织的核心部分,是有效控制枢纽对城市交通影响的前提基础,然而目前还没有针对枢纽机动车交通流量预测的系统方法。鉴于此,在前人的研究基础上,结合现阶段综合客运枢纽建设特征,充分考虑枢纽内交通换乘、商业及办公后,提出一种较为系统的预测方法。首先分析综合客运枢纽的基本功能和换乘类型,并以此为基础解析了枢纽内机动车交通需求的构成和特征;接着给出了机动车交通流量预测的基本流程,并系统地提出预测模型;最后针对模型中的参数给出了保障模型适用性和准确性的建议与措施。In the planning of comprehensive passenger transportation hub, motor vehicle traffic flow forecast is a core part of the hub external transport organizations, and is the basement and precondition to control the hub＇s impact on city traffic effectively. However, there is no one systemic prediction method for motor vehicle traffic flow in the hub. In view of this, on the basis of previous studies, combined with characteristics of the comprehensive passenger transportation hub at this stage, a full consideration to the transportation transfer, commercial and office within the hub are given, a more systematic forecasting method is proposed. At first, the basic functions and transfer types of the comprehensive passenger transportation hub are analyzed, and then the composition and characteristics motor of the vehicle traffic demand in the hub are resolved;next, the basic processes of motor vehicle traffic flow forecasts are given, and one systematic prediction model is presented. Last, some recommendations and measures are presented for the model parameters to protect the model applicability and accuracy.

关 键 词：综合客运枢纽 机动车交通需求 客运量预测 机动车流量预测 交通换乘 

分 类 号：U491.113[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]