碳排放约束下的发电技术选择——以PC发电和IGCC发电为例  

Choice of Power Generation Technology under Uncertain Carbon Price: Example of Technology of PC and IGCC

作　　者：陈涛[1,2] 邵云飞[1] 唐小我[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学经济与管理学院,成都610054 [2]四川工商职业技术学院管理系,四川都江堰611837

出　　处：《技术经济》2013年第4期62-70,共9页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目"企业协同创新与集群网络演化的交互模型研究"(71172095);科技部科技基础性工作专项资金项目"四川省创新方法应用与示范推广创新平台建设"(2011IM020100)

摘　　要：以两种发电技术——PC发电和IGCC发电为例,研究了在碳排放约束下发电企业的技术选择问题。结果表明:当碳排放价格处于低位时,PC发电的投资价值仍优于IGCC发电;随着碳排放价格的提高,IGCC发电的投资价值将超过PC发电,因此投资PC发电极可能是短视的;当企业投资CCS技术后,投资IGCC发电可能使企业拥有氢能源转换期权,该期权能激励投资IGCC发电的企业更早投资CCS技术。最后,基于破坏性创新理论,进一步论证了投资PC发电可能是短视行为的原因。This paper analyzes the choice of power generation technology under uncertain carbon price,namely PC and IGCC. The results show as follows ： when carbon price is low, the value of power plant using pulverized coal（PC） technology is higher than that of power plant using inte grated gasification combined cycle（IGCC） ;however, with the increasing of carbon price,the investment value of IGCC would exceed that of PC, which means that investing in PC technology rather than IGCC is short-sighted from the view of investment cost ; after a enterprise invests in CCS, investing in IGCC may make a enterprise have a hydrogen energy switch option which could motivate the power plant using IGCC to invest in CCS earlier. Last but not least. Finally,based on the theory of disruptive innovation,it demonstrates the judgment that the investor invest in PC power plant may be short-sighted.

关 键 词：发电技术 发电投资 技术选择 CCS 实物期权 破坏性创新 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]