改进的动态灰色模型在高铁路基变形预测中的应用  

Application of improved dynamic grey model in high-speed railway bed settlement prediction

作　　者：张玉芝[1] 杜彦良 孙宝臣[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学机械与电子控制工程学院,北京100044 [2]石家庄铁道大学河北省大型结构健康诊断与控制重点实验室,河北石家庄050043

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2013年第2期56-61,共6页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：铁道部科技研究开发计划项目(2011G021-A)

摘　　要：在分析灰色预测理论的建模机理和已有动态预测模型研究成果的基础上,从级比检验、背景构造值及残差等方面分别对动态新陈代谢模型进行了改进以提高预测精度,并通过工程实例的部分数据验证其改进效果,而后将其应用于工程中不同位置测点沉降变形的实时预测与分析。研究结果表明:建立的改进动态灰色新陈代谢预测模型群,精度较高,即使对于波动较大的测点,其预测也具有一定的参考价值,适用于高速铁路路基沉降变形的实时预测。On the basis of analyzing grey prediction model＇ s mechanism and existing dynamic prediction modet, dynamic metabolism prediction model was gradually improved in terms of stage ratio, conformation of background value and residual error so as to improve prediction accuracy. The precision of improved model was verified through part of HSR bed settlement data. Furthermore, the improved dynamic grey model was applied to various real time prediction and analysis of settlement data in engineering. The results indicate that the prediction with the improved dynamic grey model group, even for the measuring points of large fluctuations, also has certain ref- erence value and high precision. The model is suitable to the real time prediction of HSR bed settlement.

关 键 词：高速铁路 无砟轨道 路基变形 动态灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：TU473.12[建筑科学—结构工程]