基于灰色评价模型的枢纽机场之间延误影响分析  

Analysis of Delay Impact between Hub Airports Based on Gray Evaluation Model

作　　者：王红勇[1] 马乐川[1] 赵嶷飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学天津市空管运行规划与安全技术重点实验室,天津300300

出　　处：《航空计算技术》2013年第2期21-24,共4页Aeronautical Computing Technique

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(61039001);国家科技支撑计划项目资助(2011BAH24B10);中国民用航空总局科技项目资助(MHRD201018);中央高校基本科研业务费资助(ZXH2012M001)

摘　　要：随着民航事业的高速发展,航班量逐年剧增,导致了大面积航班延误、延误波及现象频繁发生。采用灰色预测方法,选择全国流量较大的五个机场为研究对象,确定评价指标,建立评价样本矩阵,计算出灰色权向量和权向量,得到五个机场的指标评价值以及评价对象北京首都机场的综合评价值。通过对综合评价值的分析,可以得到各个机场对于首都机场延误的影响程度,可依此优化机场的进离场航班顺序,最大程度上减少五个机场对于首都机场的延误影响,提高首都机场的运行效率。In recent years, the civil aviation industry high- speed development, airport expansion, the air-line expanded fleet size. This has resulted in flights substantial increasing, and a large area of flight delays and delay propagation between the airports occurred frequently. In this paper, the gray prediction method for the five airports of larger nationwide flows, evaluation index weight and evaluation grade standards, calculated the gray weight vector and weight vector, calculated the five airports＇ evaluate value as well as a comprehensive evaluation objects of Beijing Capital Airport＇s evaluation value. Finally the paper calculated the degree of influence of each airport for Beijing Capital Airport. This can be optimized according to the airport flight out into order, the greatest degree reduce five airport to capital airport delay effect and improve the operation efficiency of the capital airport.

关 键 词：灰色预测模型 航班延误 延误传播 

分 类 号：V351[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]