刻画客户行为特征的概率分布选择研究  

Research on Probability Distributions Selection Based on Customer Behavioral Characteristics

作　　者：蔡瑞[1] 齐佳音[1] 屈启兴[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京邮电大学经济管理学院,北京100876

出　　处：《北京邮电大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第2期79-85,共7页Journal of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家重点基础研究规划项目(2012CB315805);国家自然科学基金项目(71171023);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-10-0241);北京邮电大学优秀博士研究生创新基金项目(CX201218)

摘　　要：在客户基分析领域中,学者们针对客户在交易过程中表现出的不同行为特征建立了众多与之适应的概率模型。这类模型主要通过在假设中选择不同的概率分布对客户行为特征进行刻画。本文基于经典的Pareto/NBD模型的五项假设,分别从数学性质角度和行为特征角度分析出各项假设中使用各种分布的差异以及之间的转换条件,并总结得到各项假设中选择分布的衡量标准,从而帮助建模者理解和区分各种分布所适合的刻画情景。In the field of customer base analysis, numbers of probability models are established according to dif- ferent behavioral characteristics that customers have showed in the transaction process. Such models characterize customer behavior by selecting different probability distributions in the model assumptions. Based on the five as- sumptions in the classic Pareto/NBD model, the differences and conversion conditions of various distributions in those assumptions are analyzed, both from the perspectives of mathematical properties and behavioral characteris- tics, and also the benchmark of selecting distributions in each assumption is summarized, so as to help modelers understand and distinguish the suitable scenarios for each distribution to characterize.

关 键 词：客户基分析 概率分布 客户行为 客户终生价值 

分 类 号：F713.55[经济管理—市场营销]