中国与国际住宅市场的估值比较  

A Comparative Study on the Valuation of City Residential Markets of China and Developed Countries

作　　者：赵留彦[1] 赵岩 

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,北京100871 [2]国家发改委价格认证中心,北京100036

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第3期60-64,共5页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"我国通货膨胀驱动因素和动态行为理论与实证研究"(70973002)

摘　　要：静态地看,中国的城市房价远高于发达国家,中国房价收入比大约是发达国家该比率均值的4倍,房价租金比也超过美国主要城市的2倍。动态视角下,考虑到中国和成熟市场预期收入增长速度的差异,国内住宅价格的高估程度并不像静态结果显示的那么大,尽管仍然是明显高估的。从使用未来收入或者租金偿还年限上比较,中国一线城市的住宅市场比纽约等国际都市高估了大约30%。中国的高房价主要源于高的货币增长率和高的通货膨胀预期。In this paper, we compare the valuation of city residential markets across China and developed countries. The static comparison shows that housing price level in China if far higher than that in the developed countries. The price - to - income ratio in China is about 4 times higher than that of the developed countries, and price -to -rent ratio is 2 times that of the major cities in the United States. However, examined from the dynamic perspective, if taking into account the differences between the expected income growth of a mature market and the actual Chinese one, the overestimation of the residential market in China is not as serious as that displayed by static results, although it is still significantly overestimated. From the comparison of future income disposal or rent repayment period, China＇s first - tier cities housing market has been overestimated by about 30% than that in New York. In our opinion, high housing prices in China is mainly due to the high money growth and inflation expectations.

关 键 词：房价收入比 房价租金比 动态估值 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]