基于BP神经网络的邮轮旅游需求预测  

A prediction model for cruise tourism demand based on BP neural network

作　　者：贾鹏[1] 刘瑞菊[1] 孙瑞萍[1] 杨忠振[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《科研管理》2013年第6期77-83,共7页Science Research Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51078049);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20112125120005);中国博士后科学基金项目(2012M520611);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(3132013320)

摘　　要：科学分析邮轮旅游需求规模是正确引导邮轮产业规划、投入和发展所面临的重要议题。本文首先采用定性分析和定量统计相结合的方法研究邮轮旅游需求的影响因素,并在此基础上建立基于BP神经网络的邮轮旅游需求预测模型,然后基于美国邮轮市场的统计数据进行模型的训练及测试,最后将模型应用于我国邮轮旅游需求规模的预测,精度达到95%以上。Scientific analysis on cruise tourism demand is the key issue to correctly guide the planning, investment, and develop-ment of the cruise industry. First, the method combining the qualitative research with quantitative analysis is used to identify the influential factors of cruise tourism demand. Based on the BP neural network, a model for forecasting the cruise tourism demand is built, and then the model is trained and tested on the basis of statistical data of U.S.A. cruise tourism market. Finally, a model that is used to forecast the demand of Chinese cruise tourism market is proposed and the results indicate that the prediction reaches at the precision above 95%.

关 键 词：邮轮 旅游需求 影响因素 BP神经网络 

分 类 号：F590.8[经济管理—旅游管理]