深圳市人口与医疗需求预测  

The prediction of Shenzhen population and medical demand

作　　者：顾明亮[1] 王江涛[1] 张剑[1] 修涛[1] 史建鑫[1] 谭丽娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江工程学院数学系,黑龙江哈尔滨150050

出　　处：《黑龙江工程学院学报》2013年第3期76-80,共5页Journal of Heilongjiang Institute of Technology

基　　金：国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201211802048)

摘　　要：以深圳市人口与医疗床位需求预测为研究对象,对深圳市近10a的人口数据进行处理,根据人口特点建立数学模型,验证模型的可行性;然后利用相关数据,建立BP神经网络模型,预测深圳市未来10a每千人口拥有的床位数,从而预测深圳全市和各区的医疗床位需求情况。针对不同类型的疾病在医疗机构床位的需求情况,搜集恶性肿瘤和小儿肺炎两种病的数据,根据数据处理的结果得到发病率。根据过去两种病在不同类型医疗机构中的分配情况,预测未来两种病在不同类型医疗机构的床位需求。Taking the population Shenzhen and medical beds demand as the subject of study, it processes the data of Shenzhen population for the last ten years and establishes a mathematical model based on the characteristics of the population. Then its feasibility is verified. A BP neural network mode with relevant data is given to predicte the number of beds per thousand population of Shenzhen in the next ten years and beds demand conditions of each district. As for the different types of disease in medical institutions for bed demand, such as malignant tumors and infantile pneumonia, data is collected to obtain the morbidity. Based on the distributions of two kinds of diseases in different institutions, prediction is made on the beds in demand for the future.

关 键 词：数学模型 BP神经网络模型 效率 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]