1951-2008年乌鲁木齐极端气候事件分析  

Extreme Climate Events in Urumqi during 1951-2008

作　　者：慈晖[1,2] 张强[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275 [2]中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广东广州510275

出　　处：《灾害学》2013年第4期22-28,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：水利部公益项目(201001066);新疆自治区科技攻关项目(200931105);国家自然科学基金项目(41071020;50839005);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划共同资助成果

摘　　要：采用乌鲁木齐1951-2008年逐日降水、气温时间序列资料,利用数理统计方法分析了乌鲁木齐年、季降水、气温变化特征。其次,采用线性倾向估计、M-K趋势检验等方法分析了乌鲁木齐极端气候事件。研究结果表明:①乌鲁木齐降水量和气温分别在1987年、1993年发生气候突变,呈现出一致的上升趋势,气温突变的程度比降水突变的程度更为明显;②乌鲁木齐降水量以及高温主要集中在4-10月,发生突变以后,降水更为丰沛,冬、夏降水量增多趋势比较明显,而气温也呈现出上升趋势,且日最高温的上升趋势较日最低温的上升趋势明显;③年平均气温呈上升趋势,主要是由冬季增温造成的,所表现出的上升趋势夜间变化较昼间变化明显;④夏季降水量呈上升趋势主要是由于极端降水事件的发生,也有可能以此作为一种冷却机制抑制了夏季最高温的上升趋势,而冬季降水量同样呈现出显著上升趋势,可能是由于冬季最低温的持续上升趋势,进一步的加剧了冬季降水量的增多;⑤对比分析了多种极端气温指标以及极端降水指标,表明降水以及气温均呈现出上升趋势。Based on sequence data of daily precipitation and temperature time in Urumqi during 1951 -2008, and yearly and seasonal variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature of Urumqi are analyzed by using mathematical statistics method. Extreme climate events in the city are studied by methods as linear trend estimation, M -K trend test, etc. Results show that： （1） precipitation and temperature had an abrupt climate change in 1987 and 1993 respectively, presenting a consistent upward trend and the abrupt change of temperature is more obvious than the precipitation mutation; （2） precipitation amount and high temperature mainly concentrated in from April to October, and the precipitation becomes more plentiful after an abrupt change, precipitation amount increases obviously in winter and summer, and the temperature also increases with a more obvious daily maximum temperature than daily minimum temperature; （3） Mainly caused by winter warming, the annual average temperature is rising, showing a more obvious nighttime variation than diurnal change; （4） Precipitation shows a rising trend in summer, which is mainly because of extreme precipitation events, or taking this as a cooling mechanism to bate the rising of summer maximum temperature. Precipitation also shows a rising trend in winter, which is possibly resulting from the rising trend of minimum temperature in winter, aggravating the increase in winter precipitation ; （5） various extreme temperature index and extreme precipitation index are comparatively analyzed, indicating that both precipitation and temperature show a rising trend.

关 键 词：降水 气温 突变分析 极端气候事件 乌鲁木齐 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]