区域综合减灾能力评价模型和方法研究与实证分析  

Research and empirical analysis of evaluation model and method on regional comprehensive disasters reduction ability

作　　者：胡俊锋 张宝军 杨佩国 邹乐乐[2] 李仪 

机构地区：[1]民政部国家减灾中心,北京100124 [2]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2013年第5期13-22,共10页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAC44B04;2008BAC44B01)

摘　　要：区域综合减灾能力是反映一定区域在防灾备灾、应急处置、救援救助和灾后重建等灾害管理全过程的综合能力,如何评价区域综合减灾能力,找出区域综合减灾能力的薄弱环节,对于加强国家和基层综合减灾能力建设、评价综合减灾工作成效具有重要意义。在构建区域综合减灾能力评价指标体系的基础上,研究提出了区域综合减灾能力评价模型,采用层次分析和人工神经网络两种方法进行了区域综合减灾能力评价,使得评价我国区域综合减灾能力成为可能。以江西省为例,按市为基本单元进行了区域综合减灾能力计算,计算结果与实际情况进行了对比分析,表明评价结果客观、准确、合理,验证了所提区域综合减灾能力评价指标体系、模型和方法具有较好的科学性、合理性及可行性。Regional comprehensive disaster reduction ability reflects the comprehensive ability in disaster prevention and preparedness, emergency disposal, rescue and relief, post-disaster reconstruction. The assessment is to find weakness in the regional comprehensive disaster reduction ability, which has important meaning in strengthening national and basic level ability and improving assessment working effect. Based on the establishment of the index system, this paper put forward an evaluation model of regional comprehensive disaster reduction ability and tests by AHP and neural network methods. Then, Jiangxi Province’s comprehensive disaster reduction ability were calculated. Comparison between calculated results and actual situation showed that, the method of evaluation is reliable and accurate. It has good scientificalness, rationality and feasibility.

关 键 词：综合减灾能力 评价模型方法 层次分析法 神经网络法 实证研究 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]