基于元胞自动机的个体移动异质性传染病传播模型  

CA-based epidemic propagation model with inhomogeneity and mobility

作　　者：谭欣欣[1] 戴钦武 史鹏燕 王丽燕[1] 刚家泰[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连大学信息工程学院,辽宁大连116622

出　　处：《大连理工大学学报》2013年第6期908-914,共7页Journal of Dalian University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71072161)

摘　　要：利用元胞自动机原理,建立了同时具有异质性和移动性的SEIR传染病传播模型.考虑到个体自身的传染能力、对传染病的抵抗能力等不同因素的影响,通过感染概率来体现个体的异质性;限制种群移动的范围,添加种群移动的比例来实现种群的移动,扩展了随机行走元胞自动机.结合甲型H1N1流感的传播特征,模拟了其传播过程.模拟结果与官网公布的实际数据相吻合,验证了模型的合理性和有效性.利用该模型还分别考察了种群移动比例和种群移动最大距离对传染病传播的影响,相比较种群移动比例对传染病传播的影响更加显著,加速了传染病的传播.An epidemic $EIR model with inhomogeneity and mobility is built based on the theory of cellular automata. The inhomogeneity in individuals＇ behaviors is considered by assigning varying levels of infectivity and susceptibility. The distance of population movement will be limited and the percentage of population movement has been realized, so random walk cellular automata is extended. The proposed model can be served as a basis to simulate real epidemics based on real data. According to the real data about influenza A （H1N1）, the numerical simulation is realized. The results of simulation are very close to the practical data announced by the official. It is shown that the model is rational and valid. Further study is conducted on the effect of population movement on epidemic propagation. Compared with the max-distance of population movement, the effect of the percentage of population movement is more sensitive, and it can accelerate the spreading of the epidemic disease.

关 键 词：元胞自动机 异质性 移动性 甲型H1N1流感 随机行走元胞自动机 

分 类 号：O242.1[理学—计算数学]