基于证据理论的深基坑工程施工风险综合评价  

Risk synthetic assessment for deep pit construction based on evidence theory

作　　者：杜修力[1] 张雪峰[1] 张明聚[1] 侯本伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学城市与工程安全减灾省部共建教育部重点实验室,北京100124

出　　处：《岩土工程学报》2014年第1期155-161,共7页Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering

摘　　要：为综合考虑不同风险因素对风险评价结果的影响,针对目前不完全信息下深基坑工程施工风险评价无法利用定性评价信息——专家评语的问题,建立了基于证据理论的深基坑工程施工风险综合评价方法。首先,在风险识别的基础上建立深基坑工程施工风险评价指标体系;然后,提出基于证据理论的风险综合评价模型,利用层次分析法确定指标的权重,根据专家评语计算指标mass函数,通过线性加权法对指标mass函数进行合成,建立了基于风险等级信度的决策规则。通过实例分析验证了方法的合理与实用性,此方法可为其它同类工程提供借鉴。To consider different effects of risk factors on the risk assessment and to overcome the problem that qualitative evaluation information and expert remark under incomplete information cannot be utilized in the comprehensive risk evaluation for deep pit construction （DPC）, a synthetic risk evaluation method for DPC is established based on the evidence theory. The index system of risk assessment for DPC is established on the basis of risk identification firstly. Then, the risk synthetic assessment model in the light of the evidence theory is proposed. In the assessment model, the weight of each stage factor is determined by using the analytic hierarchy process. The mass functions for calculating indexes are determined by expert remarks. The index mass functions are fused by the linear weighted method, and the decision rules are established based on the belief of the risk level. The proposed method is reasonable and practical, which is proved by an example, and it may provide reference for other similar projects.

关 键 词：深基坑工程 施工风险 证据理论 信度 综合评价 评语 

分 类 号：TU473[建筑科学—结构工程]