基于水灾征兆的煤矿安全危机预测方法研究  

Study on Safety Crisis Prediction Method Based on Water Disaster in Coal Mine

作　　者：蒋仲安[1] 刘祥龙[1] 陈雅[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2014年第1期76-78,共3页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

摘　　要：为有效管理煤矿水灾安全危机,并为管理者提供决策支持,从煤矿发生水灾前的征兆入手,通过分析130起煤矿水灾事故发生案例,结合历史文献,确定出水灾安全危机征兆指标32个。根据所选指标特点,选用BP神经网络作为预测模型、概率模型作为数据建立模型,在Matlab的环境下,通过实验验证了方法的可行性。Analysis on the symptoms of crisis is conducted before water disaster in coal mine. Through statistics of 130 accidents cases, thirty - two indicators are identified in water disaster based on historical literature, which can provide decisionmaking support for effective management of water disaster safety crisis in coal mine and for managers. According to the crisis indicators selected, BP neural network is determined as the prediction model and probability model as data model, some experiments are conducted to verify the feasibility of the models in the Matlab- based environment.

关 键 词：危机征兆 安全危机 概率模型 BP神经网络 

分 类 号：TD79[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]